Gold BUY Signals Flashing

 As you can see below, more than 40 years later, a dollar is worth only 17 cents. This significant decline in purchasing power only strengthens the case of gold as a store of value, likely prompting Global Portfolio Strategist Don Coxe to propose making Nixon the “patron saint of gold investors,” during this year’s Denver GoldForum.

The Decline of the Purchasing Power of the Dollar

As Milton Friedman once said, “Only government can take perfectly good paper, cover it with perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless.”

In its long-term asset return research charting economic history in comparison to current markets, Deutsche Bank illustrates multiple ways how “the world dramatically changed post-1971 relative to prior history.” While the research firm makes it clear that returning to the gold standard would be “disastrous,” DB finds that the “lethal cocktail of unparalleled levels of global debt and unparalleled global money printing” are relatively new governmental developments.

Prior to the last four decades, deficits only occurred in extreme situations of war or severe economic setbacks, such as the Great Depression. Balanced budgets were a “routine peace time phenomena in sound economies.” Since 1971, surpluses have been rare. The U.K. has had an annual budget deficit 51 out of the past 60 years and Spain has had 45 years of deficit spending over the past 49 years, according to DB.

Countries Running Annual Budget Deficits for Last Several Decades

Many developed countries are in a predicament, as fiscal austerity attempts have led to weaker-than-expected growth in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. DB asks, “Can we really be confident that the developed economies that we have created over the last 40 years have the ability to withstand the effects of austerity and cut backs? Do our modern day econometric models have the ability to understand the impacts of fiscal retrenchment after a financial crisis having been calibrated in a period of excessive leverage?”

Countless discussions over fiscal and monetary policies will carry on, but time will tell. Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations on World Markets, says, “Excessive debt creates deflationary drag that they repeatedly fight by throwing fresh ‘liquidity’ or ‘stimulus’ at, to debauch the currency of that debt … For private investors, gold is the best medium for self-protection and preservation of purchasing power in my view.” I agree. Rising money supply, declining purchasing power and annual deficits are giving the all-clear to include gold in your portfolio.

Many others appear to agree with us, as sentiment has shifted in favor of the metal in recent days: According to Morgan Stanley’s survey of 140 institutional investors in the U.S., gold sentiment was at its highest bullish reading since July 2011 and the largest month-over-month increase during the survey’s three-year history!

So, gold investors, if you haven’t put in your orders, consider getting them in quickly, because the bulls are buying. Credit Suisse saw “massive inflows” into gold exchange-traded products in August after experiencing significant outflows compared to crude oil and the broader market in March, April, May and July. August shows a clear preference toward gold.

Investors Rushing into Gold

We generated lots of interest when we showed our standard deviation chart a few weeks ago, so I updated it through September 13. Although gold has been on a tear recently, breaking through the stumbling block of $1,600 and climbing to $1,770 by Friday, bullion still looks attractive, with a low sigma reading of -1.7.

Gold Sending a Buy Signal?

A look at a histogram shows how many times gold bullion historically fell in this sigma range. Today’s sigma of -1.7 has occurred only about 2 percent of the time. Bernanke and Draghi only made the decision more obvious for gold and gold stock buyers.

n 1988, M1 was $800 billion, gold was $500/ounce. In 2008, M1 doubled to $1600 billion, gold also doubled to $1000/ounce. The recently announced QE3 will once again triple the federal reserve’s balance sheet (which is similar to M1) to $5 trillion in two years from now, which means gold will again triple to an estimated $3200/ounce in 2 years from now.

Posted by jackbassteam on September 19, 2012

 

The Gold Investor’s Handbook

NOW Available at Amazon.com  ( go to Books and enter ” The Gold Investor’s Handbook” )


Franco-Nevada State Of Gold Market : Presentation

English: Clark gruber denver ten dollar gold coin

English: Clark gruber denver ten dollar gold coin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Gold (GC : NASDAQ : US$1767 )

Franco-Nevada (FNV : TSX : $53.99)

 

 Pierre Lassonde’s keynote address at the Denver Gold Forum-  The Chairman of Franco- Nevada’s presentation was entitled, “The state of the Gold Bull Market: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”.

 

Lassonde says new finds are proving increasingly elusive and costly. How many dollars of in-situ gold value does one ofexploration expenditure yield? From 2000-2010, the return on exploration costs for gold (ratio return/cost) was 11x compared to the decade 1960-1970 when it was 105x. New finds are taking longer to bring to market – an average of 10-12 to 15 years until production.

Instead of mega-gold projects, Lassonde believes mining companies need focus on finding smaller, higher grade, less impact, easier to permit. Easier said than done? Lassonde when on to lament about analysts: friends or foes? The mining analysts have been forecasting flat to declining gold prices. By contrast, oil and gas analysts forecast rising commodity prices for the producers they cover. Twenty to 25 per cent of our cost is energy, so both essentially they are both saying we’re going to have margin compression.

Why would you want to own any stock, of any company, that has margin compression and the commodity price going down? You wouldn’t.

 

 


Colossus Minerals Update

Gold :: Locality: Serra Pelada (Serra Leste) A...

Gold :: Locality: Serra Pelada (Serra Leste) Au-(Pd-Pt) deposit, Curionópolis, Carajás mineral province, Pará, North Region, Brazil (Locality at mindat.org) :: Size: miniature, 4.3 x 2.3 x 1.2 cm (39 grams) ::;Gold :: A large and important nugget for the locality! Gold nuggets from Brazil are quite hard to obtain. This one shows minute crysatllization in the pockets, as well. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Colossus Minerals (CSI : TSX : $5.05)

Gold stocks got a meaningful boost after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing yesterday.

One of the names that has had a solid run lately is Colossus Minerals, who is currently building their Serra Pelada mine in Brazil. At the recent Denver Gold Forum, CSI management reiterated their commitment to commencing production by mid-2013. The company also noted that initial bulk sample extraction from the ore body is expected in Q4/12, with an initial one-year reserve to be announced in Q1/13. During the presentation the company highlighted the exploration upside for the project, however it is unlikely the market will give them much value for drill results until they get the mine into production.

 

Once the mine is fully ramped up in 2014 the company expects to produce approximately 200,000 ounces of gold per year along with meaningful platinum and palladium production. The by-product credits from the platinum and palladium production will allow the mine to have some of the lowest gold cash costs in the industry. The company is due to issue another construction update, as the last construction update was issued in April. While shareholders have enjoyed the last several weeks of positive price action, the company’s Gold Linked Note holders are now also benefitting from the move in gold, as the Notes now yield 10% after the price of gold crossed US$1,750 per ounce.