Gold BUY Signals Flashing

 As you can see below, more than 40 years later, a dollar is worth only 17 cents. This significant decline in purchasing power only strengthens the case of gold as a store of value, likely prompting Global Portfolio Strategist Don Coxe to propose making Nixon the “patron saint of gold investors,” during this year’s Denver GoldForum.

The Decline of the Purchasing Power of the Dollar

As Milton Friedman once said, “Only government can take perfectly good paper, cover it with perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless.”

In its long-term asset return research charting economic history in comparison to current markets, Deutsche Bank illustrates multiple ways how “the world dramatically changed post-1971 relative to prior history.” While the research firm makes it clear that returning to the gold standard would be “disastrous,” DB finds that the “lethal cocktail of unparalleled levels of global debt and unparalleled global money printing” are relatively new governmental developments.

Prior to the last four decades, deficits only occurred in extreme situations of war or severe economic setbacks, such as the Great Depression. Balanced budgets were a “routine peace time phenomena in sound economies.” Since 1971, surpluses have been rare. The U.K. has had an annual budget deficit 51 out of the past 60 years and Spain has had 45 years of deficit spending over the past 49 years, according to DB.

Countries Running Annual Budget Deficits for Last Several Decades

Many developed countries are in a predicament, as fiscal austerity attempts have led to weaker-than-expected growth in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. DB asks, “Can we really be confident that the developed economies that we have created over the last 40 years have the ability to withstand the effects of austerity and cut backs? Do our modern day econometric models have the ability to understand the impacts of fiscal retrenchment after a financial crisis having been calibrated in a period of excessive leverage?”

Countless discussions over fiscal and monetary policies will carry on, but time will tell. Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations on World Markets, says, “Excessive debt creates deflationary drag that they repeatedly fight by throwing fresh ‘liquidity’ or ‘stimulus’ at, to debauch the currency of that debt … For private investors, gold is the best medium for self-protection and preservation of purchasing power in my view.” I agree. Rising money supply, declining purchasing power and annual deficits are giving the all-clear to include gold in your portfolio.

Many others appear to agree with us, as sentiment has shifted in favor of the metal in recent days: According to Morgan Stanley’s survey of 140 institutional investors in the U.S., gold sentiment was at its highest bullish reading since July 2011 and the largest month-over-month increase during the survey’s three-year history!

So, gold investors, if you haven’t put in your orders, consider getting them in quickly, because the bulls are buying. Credit Suisse saw “massive inflows” into gold exchange-traded products in August after experiencing significant outflows compared to crude oil and the broader market in March, April, May and July. August shows a clear preference toward gold.

Investors Rushing into Gold

We generated lots of interest when we showed our standard deviation chart a few weeks ago, so I updated it through September 13. Although gold has been on a tear recently, breaking through the stumbling block of $1,600 and climbing to $1,770 by Friday, bullion still looks attractive, with a low sigma reading of -1.7.

Gold Sending a Buy Signal?

A look at a histogram shows how many times gold bullion historically fell in this sigma range. Today’s sigma of -1.7 has occurred only about 2 percent of the time. Bernanke and Draghi only made the decision more obvious for gold and gold stock buyers.

n 1988, M1 was $800 billion, gold was $500/ounce. In 2008, M1 doubled to $1600 billion, gold also doubled to $1000/ounce. The recently announced QE3 will once again triple the federal reserve’s balance sheet (which is similar to M1) to $5 trillion in two years from now, which means gold will again triple to an estimated $3200/ounce in 2 years from now.

Posted by jackbassteam on September 19, 2012

 

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Divergence in Oil, Gold and Silver Prices


Divergence in Oil, Gold and Silver Prices Signals Big Worry
Gold and silver prices have definitely found new footing in this market—a market with a great deal of uncertainty, hope and fear. I have to say that the latest economic news on U.S. manufacturing in August wasn’t encouraging and there’s also continued weakness in eurozone manufacturing that’s deflating hope for economic recovery.

If you look at the spot price action in oil, gold and silver, capital markets are telling us something and it isn’t good. Investment risk is going up—way up; and it doesn’t matter if the Federal Reserve acts next week or not. Sovereign debt, austerity measures, government spending…it all means that economic growth is going to be a very difficult thing to achieve in mature economies going into 2013.

Gold and silver prices look particularly attractive going forward. More action by the Federal Reserve puts pressure on the U.S. dollar. Increases to the U.S. money supply put pressure on the U.S. dollar. A lack of confidence in the euro currently is helpful to the U.S. dollar, but it also is helpful to gold and silver prices as some investors begin to look for another store of value. I’m absolutely convinced that investors with a mixed portfolio of holdings just have to have some exposure to gold going forward. The fundamentals just keep getting better for gold and silver prices.

The stock chart on Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX/AR) highlights the recovery in spot gold prices. This gold stock is only about one point away from its all-time high and you can see the significant upside performance commensurate with the spot price acceleration in August.

n the stock and bond markets, nothing is really going to move until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of next week. We’ll have more economic news to digest by then, but I think investment risk is going up, which is reflected in the price action in commodity markets. Gold is the benchmark for investor fear, while silver prices have more room for upside, because they lagged the recovery in spot gold for quite a while.Argonaut Gold Inc. Chart


Inflation, The U.S. Dollar and The Euro

Official portrait of Federal Reserve Chairman ...

Official portrait of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

And now the nucleus of Europe, and Germany, is starting to split.  German unemployment increased five straight months in August to reach 2.9 million.  Factory orders fell 7.8% in June YOY as manufacturing output contracted further in August. 

 And listen up all you lovers of the Phillips Curve and inflation atheists; Spain’s unemployment rate has just reached another Euro-era high of 25.1% in July.  However, inflation is headed straight up, rising from 1.8% in June, to 2.7% in August.  But this is just the beginning of rising unemployment and soaring inflation.  Just wait until the ECB and Fed launch their attack in September.

 The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve are both about to announce, this very month, an incredible assault on the Euro and the dollar.  The European Union said on August 31st that it proposes to grant the ECB sole authority to grant all banking licenses.   

This means the ECB would be allowed to make the European Stabilization Mechanism—if sanctioned by the German courts on September 12th–a bank, which would allow them an unfettered and unlimited ability to purchase PIIGS’ debt.  This is exactly what Mario Draghi meant when he said he would do “whatever it takes to save the euro.” 

 Not to be outdone, Fed Chairman Bernanke gave a speech on the same day indicating that open-ended quantitative easing will most likely be announced on September 13th.  Fed Presidents Eric Rosengren and John Williams spelled out what open-ended QE means.  The Fed would print about $50 billion per month of newly created money until the unemployment rate and nominal GDP reach target levels set by the central bank.

 Incredibly, Mr. Bernanke said in his speech at Jackson Hole, WY that previous QEs have provided “meaningful support” for the economic recovery.  He then quickly contradicted himself by saying that the recovery was “tepid” and that the economy was “far from satisfactory.”  He also said, “The costs of nontraditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant.”  

Therefore, the Fed believes their attack on the dollar has helped the economic recovery and that it has been conducted with little to no negative consequences.  Of course, you first have to ignore the destruction of the middle class.  And incredibly, Bernanke also believes the $2 trillion worth of counterfeiting hasn’t quite been enough to bring about economic prosperity, so he’s going have to do a lot more.

 

What the Fed and ECB don’t realize is that their infatuation with inflation, artificial low rates and debt monetization has allowed the U.S. and Europe the ability to borrow way too much money.  Their debt to GDP ratios have increased to the point that these nations now stand on the brink of insolvency.  

 And now these central banks will embark on an unprecedented money printing spree that will eventually cause investors to eschew their currencies and bonds.  Therefore, they have managed to turn what would have been a severe recession in 2008, into the current depression in Southern Europe and a U.S. currency and bond market crisis circa 2015.  

The only good news here is that the failed global experiment in fiat currencies may be quickly coming to an end.  In the interim, investors that have exposure to energy and precious metal commodities will find sanctuary.”