BofA: Gold Price Forecast

BofA Merrill Lynch is fairly bullish on gold over the next few years – they expect the shiny yellow metal to rise to $2400 an ounce by the end of 2014.

 

Calls like this usually capture all of the attention because everyone wants to know how high gold can really go.

However, in a new report, BofA analysts Michael Jalonen, Mike Parkin, and Lawson Winder look at the other side of the trade. What is the lowest they think gold could go?

The BofA analysts say the floor is in at $1500, owing to increasing demand from emerging markets going forward:

Our analysis shows that investors will have to buy significant amounts of gold to push prices above $2,000/oz this year. However, with emerging markets getting richer, their budget allocation to non-essential items such as gold will likely increase in the long-run. This means that the marginal importance of investors could start to decline in the longer term, likely supporting a gold price floor above $1,500/oz over the next decade. In any case, a firm recovery in the US and global economies will remain the greatest risk to gold prices over this new phase of QE3, as a rapid and disorderly unwind of this monetary easing cycle would likely drive investors out of gold, in our view.

Morgan Stanley recently mentioned emerging market central bank demand and a return of the Indian consumer as two bullish developments for gold in 2013.

Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith logo in ...

Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith logo in use prior to the firm’s 1974 rebranding that introduced the “bull” logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


Chinese Investors Turning To Silver

The Shanghai International Exhibition Centre, ...

The Shanghai International Exhibition Centre, an example of Soviet neoclassical architecture in Shanghai (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Silver demand in China, the world’s second-largest user, is set to jump as much as 10 percent next year to a record as investors look to preserve wealth, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

Consumption may climb to 7,700 metric tons after gaining 6 percent to 8 percent in 2012, Shi Heqing, an analyst at Beijing Antaike, said in an interview on Oct. 22. About 33 percent of the country’s demand comes from jewelry and coins, with the rest from industrial use in photography, solar and electrical appliances, according to Antaike, which has studied metals for two decades.

Chinese investors are buying more silver as the second- largest economy slowed for a seventh quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index is heading for a third straight annual drop and property curbs are limiting prices. Silver climbed 14 percent this year and holdings by exchange traded funds gained 6.5 percent this year after touching 592 million ounces last week.

“Chinese investors want hard assets such as silver, especially when it’s cheaper than gold and requires less funding,” Shi said. “Many producers and investors have hoarded the precious metal in the form of ingots or unwrought silver.”

Silver rose 53 percent in the Federal Reserve’s first round of quantitative easing, or QE, from December 2008 through March 2010, twice as much as gold, and 24 percent during the second phase ending in June 2011, three times as much. The U.S. central banks announced a third round of QE on Sept. 13. Silver will probably beat gold in the next several quarters, Morgan Stanley (MS) predicts.

Jewelry Sales

China’s jewelry sales jumped by 19.3 percent in the first eight months from a year earlier, Shi said, citing the National Statistics Bureau. The government doesn’t give a breakdown on jewelry sales.

“I’m bullish on silver, so I personally have stockpiled 3 tons of it at home,” Yang Guohui, president at Hunan Yishui Rare & Precious Metals Recycling Co., said in Xiamen on Oct. 17. Yishui is based in Yongxing County, Hunan province, where about 20 percent of China’s silver is from, according to Huang Xiaoming, head of the local precious metals management bureau.

The spread between Chinese and overseas prices is about $40 a kilogram because of import duties and transportation costs, Guan Bingren, a trader at Shanghai Hedge International Trading Co., said yesterday. The premium rose to more than $200 in May 2011 when investors bid up the metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange amid a “frenzy” of speculation, Guan said.

Solar Industry

A recovery in the solar industry may add to demand, Shi said. The government is targeting 21 gigawatts of solar-power installations by 2015 after installing 2.6 gigawatts in 2011, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

China’s economy expanded 7.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with 7.6 percent in the April-June period. The nation’s benchmark equity gauge, the Shanghai Composite Index, has declined about 3.8 percent in 2012. China’s September new home prices rose in fewer than half the cities monitored by the government from a month earlier.

Silver for December delivery on the Comex in New York traded at $31.905 an ounce at 8:31 a.m. in Beijing. Gold futures traded at $1,708.10 an ounce, making it 54 times more expensive.

Output in China, the third-biggest producer, may reach a record 13,000 tons this year from mining, smelting, refining and recycling, according to Wang Jian, deputy head of the China Nonferrous (1258) Metals Industry Association.

“You don’t feel there’s a huge oversupply of silver in the domestic spot market,” Shi at Antaike said. “It’s hard to estimate because it’s not transparent.”


More forecasts of Gold over $2000 : Bank of America et al

Photo of Bank of America ATM Machine by Brian ...

Photo of Bank of America ATM Machine by Brian Katt, Framingham Rest Stop, Massachusetts. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and seven were bearish. A further seven were neutral, extending the overall bullish outlook for an 18th week. Hedge funds’ bets on a rally are at a six-month high and investors bought the most through gold-backed exchange-traded products this quarter in more than two years.

The Federal Reserve announced a third round of debt-buying Sept. 13 and the Bank of Japan said two days ago it will add 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) to a fund that buys assets. The European Central Bank announced an unlimited bond-purchase program Sept. 6 and China approved a $158 billion subways-to- roads construction plan. Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.

“Gold is one of the commodities that will benefit most from quantitative easing,” said Kamal Naqvi, the head of commodities sales in Europe, Middle East and Africa for Credit Suisse Group AG in London. “Everyone is talking about gold at $2,000 an ounce and I still think we’ll get to at least that.”

Gold’s Rally

Gold rose 14 percent to $1,776.93 an ounce in London this year, reaching a six-month high today and extending 11 consecutive annual gains. It set a record $1,921.15 in September last year. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities added 3 percent since the beginning of January and the MSCI All- Country World Index of equities increased 13 percent. Treasuries returned 1.6 percent, a Bank of America index (MXWD) shows.

Gold will climb to $2,000 by the second quarter and will reach $2,400 by the end of 2014 if the Fed’s latest easing lasts until then, Bank of America said in a Sept. 18 report. Prices will exceed $2,000 in the first half of next year, Deutsche Bank wrote that day. Morgan Stanley expects gold to average $1,816 next year and Standard Chartered predicts a second-quarter average of $1,900. Both would be the highest ever.

ETP Holdings

Investors bought 115.9 metric tons through gold ETPs since the beginning of July, the most since the second quarter of 2010. Holdings reached a record 2,523.7 tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Billionaire John Paulson raised his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold product, by 26 percent in the second quarter and George Soros more than doubled his holdings, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings showed Aug. 14.

Physical purchases will bolster prices before the Indian wedding season and religious festivals later this year, said James Moore, an analyst at FastMarkets Ltd. in London.

 
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Gold at $2400 by End of 2014 : Commodities Exchange Centre IAMGOLD Rockets

$500 Million Dollar Series 1934 Federal Reserv...

$500 Million Dollar Series 1934 Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve Certificate for Bond numbers Federal Reserve System “Federal Reserve Certificate” surrounding 2,500 Metric Tons of gold bullion tied to two-hundred fifty ( 250 ) Series 1934 Federal Reserve Note Coupon Bonds ( $500,000,000 each ) serial numbered “D 45183601 A” through “D 45183850 A.” (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In one of the most bullish gold calls since the Federal Reserve announced a new round of easing

last week, one strategist sees a 36 percent jump in the metal’s price (CEC:Commodities Exchange Centre: GCCV1), to $2,400 an ounce, by the end of 2014. 

“The new target reflects our view that the Fed will maintain mortgage purchases until the end of 2014 and will move to buy Treasuries following the end of Operation Twist this coming December,” wrote Francisco Blanch, a global investment strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note to clients Tuesday.

“Given the new open-ended nature of QE3, the upward pressure on gold prices should continue until employment is strong enough to require a change in policy,” Blanch added. “In our view, this is unlikely to happen until the end of 2014.”

 

Fed’s ‘QE-Infinity’ Will Push Gold to $2,400: Pro 

“The new target reflects our view that the Fed will maintain mortgage purchases until the end of 2014 and will move to buy Treasuries following the end of Operation Twist this coming December,” wrote Francisco Blanch, a global investment strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note to clients Tuesday.

“Given the new open-ended nature of QE3, the upward pressure on gold prices should continue until employment is strong enough to require a change in policy,” Blanch added. “In our view, this is unlikely to happen until the end of 2014.” 

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its third round of stimulus since the financial crisis, saying it would buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month.

The Fed used open-ended language in describing how long so-called QE3 would last, saying in its statement it would continue these purchases – and possibly employ other methods – until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially.

“The combination of open-ended MBS purchases and the possibility of additional Treasury bond purchases starting in December could further lift gold prices by adding over $2 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet over the next two years,” explained Blanch in his report entitled “Gold Under QE-Infiniti.”

Gold is up two percent since the Fed’s statement as others besides Bank of America pile into the metal on fear these actions may spark inflation and leave the metal as the only store of value in a world of paper currencies. Morgan Stanley also upped its gold forecast today, saying the metal would average about $1,800 an ounce next year.

“Since the Roman Empire, all fiat currencies have ended poorly,” said Guy Adami, managing director of StockMonster.com and a long-time bullion bull. “With that in mind, all roads lead to gold.”

Bullion Bulls Turn to Iamgold

Canadian gold miner Iamgoldhas been rocking higher, and bullish traders piled into the stock on Friday.

OptionMonster’s real-time tracking systems detected the purchase of almost 9,000 March 18 calls, most of which priced for $0.90 against open interest of just 15 contracts. There was also heavy volume in the January 12.50 and March 19 calls. 

Calls lock in the purchase price of a stock, so they can generate some nice leverage in the event of a rally, but they will expire worthless if the shares don’t move.

Imagold shares [IAG  15.98    -0.18  (-1.11%)   ] rose 7.49 percent to $15.79 and is up about 50 percent since early August. The entire precious-metals space has been strong recently as the euro has climbed and as investors have correctly anticipated more money-easing policies by the Federal Reserve. Other commodities, including petroleum, have also benefited.

Overall option volume in Iamgold was 12 times greater than average on Friday, with calls outnumbering puts by 7 to 1.


Gold BUY Signals Flashing

 As you can see below, more than 40 years later, a dollar is worth only 17 cents. This significant decline in purchasing power only strengthens the case of gold as a store of value, likely prompting Global Portfolio Strategist Don Coxe to propose making Nixon the “patron saint of gold investors,” during this year’s Denver GoldForum.

The Decline of the Purchasing Power of the Dollar

As Milton Friedman once said, “Only government can take perfectly good paper, cover it with perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless.”

In its long-term asset return research charting economic history in comparison to current markets, Deutsche Bank illustrates multiple ways how “the world dramatically changed post-1971 relative to prior history.” While the research firm makes it clear that returning to the gold standard would be “disastrous,” DB finds that the “lethal cocktail of unparalleled levels of global debt and unparalleled global money printing” are relatively new governmental developments.

Prior to the last four decades, deficits only occurred in extreme situations of war or severe economic setbacks, such as the Great Depression. Balanced budgets were a “routine peace time phenomena in sound economies.” Since 1971, surpluses have been rare. The U.K. has had an annual budget deficit 51 out of the past 60 years and Spain has had 45 years of deficit spending over the past 49 years, according to DB.

Countries Running Annual Budget Deficits for Last Several Decades

Many developed countries are in a predicament, as fiscal austerity attempts have led to weaker-than-expected growth in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. DB asks, “Can we really be confident that the developed economies that we have created over the last 40 years have the ability to withstand the effects of austerity and cut backs? Do our modern day econometric models have the ability to understand the impacts of fiscal retrenchment after a financial crisis having been calibrated in a period of excessive leverage?”

Countless discussions over fiscal and monetary policies will carry on, but time will tell. Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations on World Markets, says, “Excessive debt creates deflationary drag that they repeatedly fight by throwing fresh ‘liquidity’ or ‘stimulus’ at, to debauch the currency of that debt … For private investors, gold is the best medium for self-protection and preservation of purchasing power in my view.” I agree. Rising money supply, declining purchasing power and annual deficits are giving the all-clear to include gold in your portfolio.

Many others appear to agree with us, as sentiment has shifted in favor of the metal in recent days: According to Morgan Stanley’s survey of 140 institutional investors in the U.S., gold sentiment was at its highest bullish reading since July 2011 and the largest month-over-month increase during the survey’s three-year history!

So, gold investors, if you haven’t put in your orders, consider getting them in quickly, because the bulls are buying. Credit Suisse saw “massive inflows” into gold exchange-traded products in August after experiencing significant outflows compared to crude oil and the broader market in March, April, May and July. August shows a clear preference toward gold.

Investors Rushing into Gold

We generated lots of interest when we showed our standard deviation chart a few weeks ago, so I updated it through September 13. Although gold has been on a tear recently, breaking through the stumbling block of $1,600 and climbing to $1,770 by Friday, bullion still looks attractive, with a low sigma reading of -1.7.

Gold Sending a Buy Signal?

A look at a histogram shows how many times gold bullion historically fell in this sigma range. Today’s sigma of -1.7 has occurred only about 2 percent of the time. Bernanke and Draghi only made the decision more obvious for gold and gold stock buyers.

n 1988, M1 was $800 billion, gold was $500/ounce. In 2008, M1 doubled to $1600 billion, gold also doubled to $1000/ounce. The recently announced QE3 will once again triple the federal reserve’s balance sheet (which is similar to M1) to $5 trillion in two years from now, which means gold will again triple to an estimated $3200/ounce in 2 years from now.

Posted by jackbassteam on September 19, 2012

 

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MORGAN STANLEY: ‘Recent Fed Action Is A Game Changer For Gold’

English: Morgan Stanley's office on Times Square

English: Morgan Stanley’s office on Times Square (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s what Morgan Stanley  wrote in a note to clients this morning:

“We remain convinced that the interest rate outlook, the likelihood of continuing risk aversion because of the Eurozone debt crisis, and strong physical market fundamentals justify exposure to gold,” writes commodities analyst Hussein Allidina.

As a base case, Morgan Stanley sees gold rising to $1,750/ounce in Q4 and averageing $1,816/ounce in 2013.

With the Federal Reserve now embarking on QE3, or unlimited quantitative easing, Morgan Stanley is only more convinced that the yellow metal will continue to head north.

The adoption of QE3 is positive for gold, and reinforces our long-held bullish view on the metal. In a significant monetary policy development, the Fed’s move was not only supportive of risk assets in general but is likely to undermine the value of the USD, diminishing a key headwind to higher gold prices evident in 1H 2012.

Here’s a chart showing gold and stock price performance during dovish monetary policy actions:

 

gold

Morgan Stanley

 


Gold Rises With Euro Zone Crisis

Gold, 200 euro, 75th anniversary of Bank of Gr...

Gold, 200 euro, 75th anniversary of Bank of Greece (2003) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

THESIS: Trouble drives investors to precious metals – and there is trouble today and more coming in the next months/ years . 

Greece and Euro Crisis

Will

Worsen :

Morgan Stanley /

CITI Forecasts More Bailout

Nations

July 26

Earlier today, Citi’s Chief Economist Willem Buiter published a research note in which he raised the odds of a Greek exit from the eurozone to 90 percent.

Morgan Stanley‘s Global Cross-Asset Strategy Team led by Greg Peters is also worried about a Greek exit from the euro.  They’re also concerned about Spain, which is getting worse and is also much bigger than Greece.

From their latest note to clients:

Stress has returned to Europe, but the stakes are higher. Spain (let alone Italy) is not Greece: its economic size, the cost of a rescue, and the increased market skepticism about temporary fixes suggest that the policy response needs to include some of the political and institutional reforms that prior crises have not changed.

Conditions will likely worsen in the near term. Rating agencies have put investors on notice about further potential downgrades (not just to sovereigns, but also theEuropean Financial Stability Facility, EFSF); Spain is struggling to maintain access to markets; and the price action is becoming disorderly. Our colleagues in Europe are not convinced that support from the EFSF (or the European Stability Mechanism, ESM) would be effective. Ending the cycle of crises requires concrete steps to fiscal union and the ECB to act as a sovereign backstop, as the Fed does for the US Treasury. These may come, but the crisis might have to intensify first. Aggressive ECB action, were it to come, could spark a material rally. If it does not come, then we may be nearing a messy Eurozone divorce scenario.

The EFSF and ESM are bailout funds from which debt-laden countries like Spain are expected to borrow cheaply.  However, should these funds get downgraded, the cost of those bailout funds would likely go up.

The CITI View

There is now a 90 percent chance of Greece leaving the euro zone over the next 12 to 18 months, according to Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi.

Buiter, who coined the term ’Grexit’ back in May, has been assigning percentage chances of such an outcome over the last six months and now thinks it is all but certain Greece, the first euro zone member to be bailed out, will have to leave the single currency.

“Our base case (for the euro zone) is for prolonged economic weakness and financial market strains in periphery countries, spilling over into renewed recession for the euro area as a whole this year and the next,” Buiter wrote in a research note on Thursday.

“We now believe the probability that Greece will leave EMU in the next 12-18 months is about 90 percent, up from our previous 50-75 percent estimate, and believe the most likely date is in the next 2-3 quarters.” warned the former member of the Bank of England‘s monetary policy committee.

Greece leaving the euro will not be the only problem for euro zone policy makers to deal with over the coming months, according to Buiter.

 

“Even with the Spanish bank bailout, we continue to expect that both Spain and Italy are likely to enter some form of troika bailout for the sovereign by the end of 2012,” he wrote.

Stock markets’ focus has turned away from Greece after its second election of the year, in June, sawpro-bailout parties elected. Spain and Italy have moved closer to the spotlight – and Spanish bond yields have soared above the dangerous 7.5 percent level in recent weeks. Several Spanish regionshave already said they will need government financial aid.