Eric Sprott Financial Chaos June 28,2013

Chaos in the distance

Chaos in the distance (Photo credit: hanszinsli)

Nothing But Financial Chaos

“There’s just nothing but financial chaos happening 24/7. The central planners are always trying to deal with the next issue that they already know about, but they haven’t told us about.

I would suspect that we have bank runs going on in the periphery in Europe. How anybody could leave money in a weak country’s banks is beyond me. We saw what happened in Cyprus. It was a disaster for the depositors. I would imagine most people say, ‘It didn’t happen to me.’ Well, you know what, IBM, Microsoft, GE and multi-national companies, they operate in every country. They saw what happened in Cyprus and you can imagine the CFO’s of those companies saying, ‘Oh my goodness. Who’s next here?’

We all know who’s on the list of potentially who’s next. You know they’ve got to be taking their money out of the banks. That’s why we have that emergency G-7 meeting three weeks ago. That’s why we are talking about a ‘banking resolution.’

Every time you hear the word ‘banking resolution’ just read the words ‘bail-in.’ That’s what they are talking about here because they have that template. And I suspect it’s going to happen again. I think when we get one more ‘bail-in,’ people are going to realize that having money in a bank is risky.”

“So my outlook for the world’s economy is not strong.  We see a deep recession in Europe.  We see depression in many countries in Europe.  We see China slowing down, no growth in the (United) States.  I’m not optimistic about the economic outlook here.

 


Bernanke The Return Of The U.S. To The Gold Standard

Ben Bernanke dollar

Ben Bernanke dollar (Photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

here is the headline for Gold Bugs and Conspiracy Advocates –

it is not the position of THE AMP

Bernanke Announces Return To Gold Standard

POSTED ON APRIL 1, 2013 BY 

For years, investors and analysts have heavily criticized the actions of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke has earned himself a slew of nicknames for his money printing, with the most popular being “Helicopter Ben.” After studying the Great Depression for many years, Bernanke felt that the reason the U.S. slipped into such a rough patch was because of the lack of money supply in the economy. This is one of the main reasons that he has maintained his quantitative easing programs that have involved exorbitant money printing.

But after pumping trillions into the system, Bernanke seems to have found himself cornered. National debt is at an all time high, and the Chairman has decided that a bold and abrupt change is needed if the U.S. wants to continue on the path to prosperity. Late yesterday, Bernanke made the shocking announcement of the return to the gold standard, which was abandoned decades ago. “The safest way for the economy to proceed is through a new system that holds more accountability for the U.S. dollar and its value in the global markets,” Bernanke said in his statement [for more gold news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].

The Gold Standard

In something of a mea culpa moment, the Chairman admitted that while his increased money supply has done well to prop up markets for the time being, it is not a sustainable solution. The reversion to the gold standard, he hopes, will allow the economy to march forward in a more stable manner. “The flexibility of a fiat currency has guided the U.S. through the toughest era since the Great Depression, but the time has come for a change,” said Bernanke.

Ben BernankeThe move comes after a wave of fears sparked by the Cyrpus banking scare. At a time when investors have little to no confidence in their local bank, the Chairman wanted to ensure that savings and investments will always be safe on American soil, hopefully giving citizens peace of mind to continue to trust local financial entities [see also 50 Ways To Invest In Gold].

One important thing to note is that the timeline for the return will be relatively drawn out and smooth. The Fed mandates that by 2015 all currency must be backed by at least 30% of its value in gold. That figure will increase to 50% by 2017 and to 100% by 2020. The move brings up a number of big questions, like whether or not the Fed will audit For Knox or other institutions that conspiracy theorists have been attacking for years. For now, we will have to wait for more specifics, but investors can already begin preparing.

Prepping for a Gold Standard

With a hard seven-year timeline, investors can already begin allocating to gold as this move will surely spark interest in the commodity. Some may choose to utilize stocks and ETFs, but physical bullion will likely be the most popular, as this will likely spark fears of a gold confiscation in order for the Fed to have enough bullion to justify the move. While a confiscation is extremely unlikely, there are those who still fear such a move.

The final question that remains to be seen is what happens in 2014 when Bernanke’s term ends. The Chairman has already hinted that another term is likely not in the books for him, so what will happen when someone else takes the reigns? Hopefully the change will be relatively seamless, but it will be worth keeping an eye on [see also Investing In Gold: The Definitive Guide].

The Bottom Line

With such monumental news coming seemingly out of nowhere, there is something that investors need to keep in mind. Today is April 1st  April Fools day. Let’s be honest, Bernanke is going to print money until the U.S. runs out of ink. But for a few paragraphs, it was fun to live in the fantasy world of a gold standard reversion. Happy April Fools Day to all, feel free to get your friends and co-workers with this article!

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Gundlach Interview : Euro Defaults and Inflation Ahead

English: With his predecessor, Alan Greenspan,...

English: With his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, looking on, Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses President George W. Bush and others after being sworn in to the Federal Reserve post. Also on stage with the President are Mrs. Anna Bernanke and Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nov. 30

The cover story of the new Bloomberg Businessweek is an excellent and comprehensive profile of bond god Jeff Gundlach.

The reporters Seth Lubove and Alexis Leondis also laid out his longer term outlook for the world as the economy enters what he call “phase three.”

Deeply indebted countries and companies, which Gundlach doesn’t name, will default sometime after 2013. Central banks may forestall these defaults by pumping even more money into the economy — at the risk of higher inflation in coming years.

“I’m waiting for something to go kaboom,” Gundlach says in his office a week before the L.A. speech. “If phase three takes two years, it’s worth waiting for. The markets don’t have lots of opportunity now.”

According to the report, Gundlach recommends investors start positioning their portfolios now as there will be little warning when the “kaboom” happens.

For now, Gundlach recommends buying gemstones, art, commercial real estate, and other hard assets.

Gundlach’s DoubleLine Funds plans to off a long-short equity fund to provide inflation-adjusted returns.  He’s also sitting on cash because he expects there to eventually be extraordinary opportunities when asset prices tumble.

Adding color to his call, Gundlach discusses U.S. policy:

In the U.S., Gundlach sees a postelection, pre-fiscal cliff economy that’s growing anemically and only because of consumer loans, government stimulus and the Fed. He says inflation could jump by 2 percentage points if the Fed ramps up its purchases of government debt beyond what it has done so far.

Led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed has purchased $2.3 trillion in securities in two rounds of quantitative easing since 2008. And it may extend its third round through 2013 and climb past a total of $1 trillion in purchases, according to economists interviewed by Bloomberg.

“You’re just going to build up pressure in the pressure cooker, and when it blows, the lid will blow sky-high, and that’s when you get to phase three,” Gundlach says

 


Almaden Minerals : New Discovery

Broken-down loading station at the abandoned N...

Broken-down loading station at the abandoned New Almaden quicksilver mine outside of San Jose, CA – almaden16 (Photo credit: mlhradio)

Almaden Minerals  (AMM : TSX : $2.71)
. Almaden jumped higher after the company announced a discovery of a new high-grade area outside of the existing resource shell.

The holes were located 50 m northeast of the closest holes that will be part of the company‟s maiden resource report.

The company also reported that for the first time visible gold was identified in high grade samples from TU-12-224. Highlights include drill hole TU-12-222 which yielded 117 m of 3.1 g/t gold equivalent (AuEq) and hole TU-12-224 which returned 134 m of 4.1 g/t AuEq.

J.D. Poliquin, Chairman of Almaden commented, “This new exciting high-grade discovery shows the continued expansion of the overall Ixtaca vein system and its potential for exceptional grades. We are excited to be working towards our maiden resource estimation, however, these new results from outside the resource area show that the resource has potential to grow significantly beyond its current edges”. The company currently has three drills operating on the Tuligtic project. Almaden plans to continue drilling operations throughout 2012.

The Gold Investor’s Handbook – click here for  investment profits and much more detail on the in’s and outs of investing in gold


FOMC Minutes :Members Like The Idea Of Adopting Quantitative Targets

Modern-day meeting of the Federal Open Market ...

Modern-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Eccles Building, Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

FOMC Minutes Reveal That Many Members Like The Idea Of Adopting Quantitative Targets

 

FOMC minutes are out.  

The headline is that the Fed says a number on the FOMC favored more QE after Operation Twist. No big surprise there.

However, the minutes do devote a significant amount of space to discussing tying Fed policy to explicit unemployment targets, as observers on Wall Street were watching for.

The view on the Committee toward the idea seems to be mixed, and the minutes spell out the case both for and against such targets.

Here are the key paragraphs we were looking for discussing tying quantitative easing to specific unemployment targets:

Thresholds and Forward Guidance

A staff presentation focused on the potential effects of using specific threshold values of inflation and the unemployment rate to provide forward guidance regarding the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate. The presentation reviewed simulations from a staff macroeconomic model to illustrate the implications for policy and the economy of announcing various threshold values that would need to be attained before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would consider increasing its target for the federal funds rate.

Meeting participants discussed whether such thresholds might usefully replace or perhaps augment the date-based guidance that had been provided in the policy statements since August 2011. Participants generally favored the use of economic variables, in place of or in conjunction with a calendar date, in the Committee’s forward guidance, but they offered different views on whether quantitative or qualitative thresholds would be most effective.

Many participants were of the view that adopting quantitative thresholds could, under the right conditions, help the Committee more clearly communicate its thinking about how the likely timing of an eventual increase in the federal funds rate would shift in response to unanticipated changes in economic conditions and the outlook. Accordingly, thresholds could increase the probability that market reactions to economic developments would move longer-term interest rates in a manner consistent with the Committee’s view regarding the likely future path of short-term rates.

A number of other participants judged that communicating a careful qualitative description of the indicators influencing the Committee’s thinking about current and future monetary policy, or providing more information about the Committee’s policy reaction function, would be more informative than either quantitative thresholds or date-based forward guidance. Several participants were concerned that quantitative thresholds could confuse the public by giving the impression that the FOMC focuses on a small number of economic variables in setting monetary policy, when the Committee in fact uses a wide range of information.

Some other participants worried that the public might mistakenly interpret quantitative thresholds as equivalent to the Committee’s longer-run objectives or as triggers that, when reached, would prompt an immediate rate increase; but it was noted that the Chairman‘s postmeeting press conference and other venues could be used to explain the distinction between thresholds and these other concepts.

Participants generally agreed that the Committee would need to resolve a number of practical issues before deciding whether to adopt quantitative thresholds to communicate its thinking about the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate. These issues included whether to specify such thresholds in terms of realized or projected values of inflation and the unemployment rate and, in either case, what values for those thresholds would best balance the Committee’s objectives of promoting maximum employment and price stability.

Another open question was whether to supplement thresholds expressed in terms of the unemployment rate and inflation with additional indicators of economic and financial conditions that might signal a need either to raise the federal funds rate before a threshold is crossed or to delay until well afterward.

A final question was whether the statement should also provide forward guidance about the likely path of the federal funds rate after the initial increase. It was noted that such guidance could have significant effects on financial conditions and the economy. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Chairman asked the staff to provide additional background material, taking into account the range of participants’ views.

Participants generally agreed that the Committee would need to resolve a number of practical issues before deciding whether to adopt quantitative thresholds to communicate its thinking about the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate. These issues included whether to specify such thresholds in terms of realized or projected values of inflation and the unemployment rate and, in either case, what values for those thresholds would best balance the Committee’s objectives of promoting maximum employment and price stability. Another open question was whether to supplement thresholds expressed in terms of the unemployment rate and inflation with additional indicators of economic and financial conditions that might signal a need either to raise the federal funds rate before a threshold is crossed or to delay until well afterward. A final question was whether the statement should also provide forward guidance about the likely path of the federal funds rate after the initial increase. It was noted that such guidance could have significant effects on financial conditions and the economy. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Chairman asked the staff to provide additional background material, taking into account the range of participants’ views.


ROXGOLD INC. High Risk Lottery Ticket

Regions of Burkina Faso.

Regions of Burkina Faso. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

ROXGOLD INC.

ROG : TSX-V : C$0.85

Roxgold Inc. is a junior exploration and development company focused on the exploration of projects in Burkina Faso, including the 100%-owned Yaramoko and Sebba projects and the 90%-owned Bouboulou (Bissa West). These projects were purchased from Riverstone Resources (RVS : TSX-V | Not rated) in October 2011.

The company is led by John Dorward, interim CEO, and Oliver Lennox-King, Chairman. Last week, Roxgold provided drill results from the Yaramoko project in Burkina Faso. Roxgold reported 109 drill holes (42,390 metres) from the ongoing drill program at the Yaramoko project. 70 holes were from the 55 Zone target and 39 holes from regional drilling.

The company is currently operating three drill rigs on site focused on step-out and definition drilling. Highlights from the program include Hole DD-223, taken from the 55 zone target that extends mineralization at depth with a 4.45 metre intercept grading 233.9 g/t gold (uncut). Using a cap of 280 g/t gold, the interval had an average grade of 146 g/t gold.

Roxgold recently contracted an engineering firm to prepare a geological interpretation of the 55 zone  that will be used to optimize the current and future drill programs. The model confirms that the ore body plunges to the east and remains open at depth. The three diamond drill rigs are currently focused on step out drilling the structure at depths of 400 to 700 metres. Although the deep drilling initiated in July/August intercepted quartz veining with no mineralization, based on this geological interpretation, the holes appear to have missed the plunge of the ore body.

Regional exploration is currently halted, while the company awaits assay results that are currently backlogged. Roxgold has approximately 5,965 core samples remaining in the backlog, which are expected to be processed within the next three weeks. Recent results from the program include Hole DD-105 that intercepted 5 metres grading 20.23 g/t gold from the 55 North Zone.

The company recently elected a new board and appointed John Dorward as Interim CEO. The company expects to provide an update on the management team within the next few weeks.

Investment risks and disclaimer

The commercialization risks associated with mineral exploration and development are high. We are not providing estimates, an investment rating, or target price for Roxgold Inc.

Our general objectives , as discussed ,are for more developed plays ; The Gold Investor’s Handbook

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